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Genesis Unicorn Capital (Genesis Unicorn Capital) Predictability Rank


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What is Genesis Unicorn Capital Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Genesis Unicorn Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Genesis Unicorn Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Genesis Unicorn Capital (Genesis Unicorn Capital) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Genesis Unicorn Capital Corp (NAS:GENQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
AIB DUET ACAX BRAC MSAC LAX FVAM BWAC PCX GDNR GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
281 Witherspoon Stree, Suite 120, Princeton, NJ, USA, 08540
Website
Genesis Unicorn Capital Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Adeoye Y Olukotun officer: Chief Executive Officer 3621 SOUTH STATE ST, 695 KMS PL, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Grainne M Coen director 111 WEST 28TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Teck-yong Heng director NANSHAN DISTRICT #12 KEFA ROAD, DACHONG, CHENGSHIHUAYUAN BLOCK 5, UNIT #38D, GUANGDONG PROVINCE, SHENZHEN F4 518057
Juan Fernandez Pascual officer: Chief Operating Officer URBANIZATION LA SIERRA, 28 39110, SOTO DE LA MARINA U3 87670
Chung Fan Cheng director 16G, TOWER 1, TWIN PEAKS, 9 CHI SHIN STREET, TSEUNG KWAN O K3 00000
Samuel Lui director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, President, CFO 7/F UNIT B, TOWER 5,RESIDENCE BEL-AIR, PHASE 1, 28 BEL-AIR AVENUE, POKFULAM K3 00000
Ernest Fong director 80 RAFFLES PLACE, # 37-02, UOB, PLAZA 1, S048624 U0 069541
Niel Starksen officer: Chief Scientific Officer 12119 EDGECLIFF PLACE, LOS ALTOS HILLS CA 94022
Genesis Unicorn Capital, Llc 10 percent owner 281 WITHERSPOON STREET, SUITE 120, PRINCETON NJ 08540