Titan Invo Technology (HKSE:00872) Predictability Rank

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What is Titan Invo Technology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Titan Invo Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Titan Invo Technology (HKSE:00872) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Titan Invo Technology Ltd (HKSE:00872) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 Zhongguancun East Road, 19th Floor, Block B, Science and Technology Building, Tsinghua Science and Technology Park, Haidian District, Beijing, CHN

Website

http://www.tus-i.com

Titan Invo Technology Ltd formerly TUS International Ltd is principally engaged in research and development, production and sales of automotive driving assistance system (ADAS) and automotive-grade wireless connectivity modules. Its operating segments are Automotive-grade wireless connectivity business which involves the research and development and sales of automotive-grade wireless connectivity modules in Europe, the United States and the Asia Pacific region, and the ADAS products segment which consists of the research and development, production and sales of ADAS products and software algorithm products in the PRC. The company operates in the PRC, Europe, the United States, and Asia pacific.

Executives

Si Chuan Sheng Neng Yuan Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ma Chi Kong Karl	2101 Beneficial owner
Wang Jiwu	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qing Hua Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qing Hua Da Xue	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bei Jing Bai Jun Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tus-holdings Co., Ltd.
Tuspark Venture Investment Ltd
Wang Jiwu
Shen Xiao
Yi Zhuang Guo Ji Kong Gu Xiang Gang You Xian Gong Si
Bei Jing Yi Zhuang Guo Ji Tou Zi Fa Zhan You Xian Gong Si

Titan Invo Technology (HKSE:00872) Headlines

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