Huazhang Technology Holding (HKSE:01673) Predictability Rank

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What is Huazhang Technology Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Huazhang Technology Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Huazhang Technology Holding (HKSE:01673) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Huazhang Technology Holding Ltd (HKSE:01673) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 99 Xiangyuan Road, Room 1101, Block 2, Canal Advertising Industry Building, Gongshu District , Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, CHN

Website

http://www.hzeg.com

Huazhang Technology Holding Ltd is principally engaged in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of paper-making products in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through four segments. Its Industrial products segment includes paper-making-related production machines. The Project contracting services segment is a key revenue driver, which consists of system integration of complete-set paper-making equipment. Its Environmental products segment provides complete treatment for wastewater, sludge, solid waste and others. The company's Supporting services segment relates to the after-sale and maintenance services, the sale of paper-making equipment parts, and other services. It generates maximum revenue from Industrial products segment.

Executives

Shi Chenghu
Dao He Investment Limited	2105 Underwriter
Fang Hui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Ai Yan
Kaiser Financing Company Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Yeung Yun Chuen	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yeung Wai	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yan Kam Cheong	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wealthy Land Investments Group Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Fang Hui	2101 Beneficial owner
Swift Fortune Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Rosy Ease Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Gain Channel Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
F&l Holding (hk) Limited	2301 Trustee
Lian Shun Limited

Huazhang Technology Holding (HKSE:01673) Headlines

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