Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology Co (HKSE:02480) Predictability Rank

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What is Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology Co (HKSE:02480) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology Co Ltd (HKSE:02480) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 3 Guangtong Street, Industrial Development Zone, Zhangjiawan Tongzhou District, Beijing, CHN

Website

http://www.luzhubiotech.com

Beijing Luzhu Biotechnology Co Ltd is a biotechnology company committed to developing innovative human vaccines and therapeutic biologics to prevent and control infectious diseases and treat cancer and autoimmune diseases. Its clinical-stage product candidates comprise one vaccine candidate, LZ901 and two antibody injection product candidates, including K3 and K193. LZ901 is our Core Product.

Executives

Ma Jianan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhu Hai Heng Qin Lv Zhu Qi Ye Guan Li He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2101 Beneficial owner
Bei Jing Lv Zhu Kang Rui Qi Ye Guan Li He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bei Jing Sai Sheng Yao Ye Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Bei Jing Yi Zhuang Er Qi Sheng Wu Yi Yao Chan Ye Tou Zi Ji Jin You Xian He Huo	2101 Beneficial owner
Bei Jing Yi Zhuang Sheng Wu Yi Yao Bing Gou Tou Zi Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo	2101 Beneficial owner
Tian Jin Sai Ding Fang De Zi Chan Guan Li Zhong Xin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tian Jin Sai De Rui Bo Zi Chan Guan Li Zhong Xin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bei Jing Yi Tang Sai Ying Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Construction Bank Corporation	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Central Huijin Investment Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Peng Ling	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhang Yanping	2202 Interest of your spouse
Kong Jian	2101 Beneficial owner
Ma Biao	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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