Tianyun International Holdings (HKSE:06836) Predictability Rank

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What is Tianyun International Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tianyun International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tianyun International Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tianyun International Holdings (HKSE:06836) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Tianyun International Holdings Ltd (HKSE:06836) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

5Q3:Germany

Address

Middle Phoenix Street, Hedong District, Shandong Province, Linyi, CHN

Website

https://www.tianyuninternational.com

Tianyun International Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company, which engages in the manufacture, process, and trade of fruits in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company provides processed fruit products packaged in metal containers, plastic cups, glass containers and aluminium foil bags; the production and sales of beverage products; and trading of fresh fruit. Processed fruit products are sold under its own brands Bingo Time, Tiantong Times and fruit zz. Beverage products are sold under its own brand Shiok Party. Its segment includes manufacturing and trading of fresh fruits and processed fruit products.

Executives

Wu Jun	2101 Beneficial owner
Lee Kar Lung	2101 Beneficial owner
Mca Limted	2101 Beneficial owner
Yin Xiaolong	2101 Beneficial owner
Li Xiaoshuang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wealthy Maker Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Rainbow Lead Ventures Limited / Yeung Wan Yiu	2101 Beneficial owner
Yeung Wan Yiu	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jl Investments Capital Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Lau Chi Yuen Joseph	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chu Yinghong	2202 Interest of your spouse
Wealthy Active Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Yang Ziyuan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Tianyun International Holdings (HKSE:06836) Headlines

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