What is Houston Wire & Cable Co Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Houston Wire & Cable Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Houston Wire & Cable Co (Houston Wire & Cable Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10201 North Loop East, Houston, TX, USA, 77029
Houston Wire & Cable Co is a distributor of electrical and mechanical wire and cable in the U.S. industrial market. The company offers products in most categories of wire and cable, including continuous and interlocked armor cable; electronic wire and cable; flexible and portable cord; instrumentation and thermocouple cable; primary and secondary aluminum distribution cable, hardware and corrosion-resistant products including inch and metric bolts, screws, nuts, washers, rivets, and hose clamps. It has three target markets: utility market, industrial market, and infrastructure market.
Executives
| Roy W Haley |
director |
COMMERCE COURT FOUR STATION SQUARE, SUITE 700, PITTSBURGH PA 15219 |
| G Gary Yetman |
director |
P.O. BOX 2139 EDWARDS CO 81632 |
| William H Sheffield |
director |
401 QUEENS QUAY WEST SUITE 104 TORONTO A6 M5V 2Y2 |
| Eric Wayne Davis |
officer: INTERIM CFO & CAO |
10201 NORTH LOOP EAST HOUSTON TX 77029 |
| Jerry Michael Zurovchak |
officer: SENIOR VP & COO |
10201 NORTH LOOP EAST HOUSTON TX 77029 |
| Christopher M. Micklas |
officer: VP & CFO |
ONE MEMORIAL CITY PLAZA, 800 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 875, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Pokluda James L Iii |
director |
10201 N. LOOP EAST HOUSTON TX 77029 |
| Sandford W. Rothe |
director |
1 GOOSEBERRY LANE CHERRY HILLS VILLAGE CO 80113 |
| David Nierenberg |
director, 10 percent owner |
19605 NE 8TH STREET, CAMAS WA 98607 |
| Nierenberg Investment Management Co |
10 percent owner |
19605 NE 8TH ST, CAMAS WA 98607 |
| Margaret Laird |
director |
1283 BLACKBIRD COURT BOULDER CO 80303 |
| Robert L Reymond |
director |
10721 W. 118TH TERRACE OVERLAND PARK KS 66210 |
| Michael T Campbell |
director |
HOUSTON WIRE & CABLE COMPANY, 10201 NORTH LOOP EAST, HOUSTON TX 77029 |
| Mark A Ruelle |
director |
C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105 |
| Nicol G Graham |
officer: VP, CFO, TREASURER & SECRETARY |
10201 NORTH LOOP EAST HOUSTON TX 77029 |
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