Inflection Point Acquisition (Inflection Point Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is Inflection Point Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Inflection Point Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Inflection Point Acquisition (Inflection Point Acquisition) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Inflection Point Acquisition Corp (NAS:IPAX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

34 East 51st Street, 5th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.inflectionpointacquisition.com

Inflection Point Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

Erin Clift	director	C/O INFLECTION POINT ACQUISITION CORP., 34 EAST 51ST STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kingstown Capital Partners, Llc	director, other: See Remarks	535 MADISON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kingstown 1740 Fund L.p.	director, other: See Remarks	34 EAST 51ST STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Guy Shanon	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	1270 BROADWAY, SUITE 1009, NEW YORK NY 10001
Michael Blitzer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	1270 BROADWAY, SUITE 1009, NEW YORK NY 10001
Kingstown Capital Management L.p.	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	167 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 205 #1033, NEW YORK NY 10016
Kingstown Management Gp Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	1270 BROADWAY, SUITE 1009, NEW YORK NY 10001
Paula Sutter	director	969 BROADWAY, SUITE 200, OAKLAND CA 94607
Inflection Point Holdings Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	34 EAST 51ST STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian Pitz	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	P.O. BOX 2158, AMTECH CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC, AMAGANSETT NY 11930
Nicholas Shekerdemian	director	201 EAST 21ST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10010