IsoPlexis (IsoPlexis) Predictability Rank

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What is IsoPlexis Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IsoPlexis Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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IsoPlexis (IsoPlexis) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » IsoPlexis Corp (NAS:ISO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

35 North East Industrial Road, Branford, CT, USA, 06405

Website

https://www.isoplexis.com

IsoPlexis Corp is a developer of a single-cell detection system designed to accelerate insights in the field of cancer. It designed a platform to reveal functional protein biology and cellular signaling networks at single-cell resolution to accelerate the development of advanced medicines.

Executives

Nachum Shamir	director	12212 TECHNOLOGY BLVD, AUSTIN TX 78727
John Strahley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	35 NORTH EAST INDUSTRIAL ROAD, BRANFORD CT 06405
Sean Mackay	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	35 NORTH EAST INDUSTRIAL ROAD, BRANFORD CT 06405
Rew Richard W. Ii	officer: SVP, GC & Secretary	7000 WEST WILLIAM CANNON, BUILDING ONE, AUSTIN TX 78735
James R Heath	director	C/O ISOPLEXIS, 35 NE INDUSTRIAL RD, BRANFORD CT 06405
Michael Egholm	director	1 FRANKLIN STREET, UNIT 3104, BOSTON MA 02110
Siddhartha Kadia	director	7475 LUSK BOULEVARD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jason W. Myers	director	C/O ARCHERDX, INC., 2477 55TH STREET, SUITE 202, BOULDER CO 80301
John G. Conley	director	396 GREAT MEADOWS RD, CONCORD MA 01742-1803
Gregory P. Ho	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SPRING MOUNTAIN CAPITAL, LP, 650 MADISON AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Peter Siesel	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	35 NORTH EAST INDUSTRIAL ROAD, BRANFORD CT 06405
Jing Zhou	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	35 NORTH EAST INDUSTRIAL ROAD, BRANFORD CT 06405
Rajesh T. Khakhar	officer: VP, Finance	35 NORTH INDUSTRIAL ROAD, BRANFORD CT 06405
Northpond Capital Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	4 BRATTLE STREET, FLOOR 3, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003