Integrated Silicon Solution (Integrated Silicon Solution) Predictability Rank

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What is Integrated Silicon Solution Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Integrated Silicon Solution Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Integrated Silicon Solution (Integrated Silicon Solution) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Integrated Silicon Solution Inc (NAS:ISSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.issi.com

Integrated Silicon Solution Inc, a Delaware corporation incorporated in October 27,1988. It is a fabless semiconductor company that designs and markets high performance integrated circuits for the automotive; communications; industrial, medical and military; and digital consumer markets. Its main products are low and medium density DRAM and high speed and low power SRAM. In particular, the Company's SRAM products are used in WLANs, cell phones, base stations, networking switches and routers, fiber to the home, DSL modems, LCD TVs, set-top boxes, GPS systems, instrumentation, engine control systems, medical equipment, telematics, audio and video equipment, satellite radio, POS terminals, fax machines, copiers, tape drives, and other applications. The Company's low and medium density DRAM products are used in WLANs, base stations, networking switches and routers, FTTH, DSL and cable modems, set top boxes, digital cameras, MP3, flat panel TVs, LCD TVs, HDTVs, video phones, voice over internet protocol, printers, disk drives, tape drives, audio/video equipment, instrumentation, GPS, telematics, infotainment, smart meters and other applications. In the low to medium density DRAM area, the Company competes with Elpida, Hynix, Micron, Nanya, Oki, Samsung and Winbond. In addition, there are several fabless Taiwanese companies that are competitors, including ESMT and Etron. In the analog market, the Company's main competitors include AMS, IWatt, Linear Technology, Maxim Integrated Products, MaxLinear, Microsemi and NXP Semiconductors. The Company outsources its manufacturing operations, including wafer fabrication, assembly and testing. The Company is subject to federal, state and local regulations relating to the use, handling, storage, disposal and human exposure to hazardous and toxic materials.

Executives

John Cobb	officer: CFO	C/O ISSI, 1940 ZANKER ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Starboard Value Gp Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Starboard Value R Gp Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Starboard Value R Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Starboard Value & Opportunity C Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Cathal G Phelan	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	400 FAIRVIEW AVENUE NORTH, SUITE 1200, SEATTLE WA 98109
Edward Terino	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	17 CANTERBURY ROAD, WINDHAM NH 03087
Starboard Value & Opportunity S Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Starboard Principal Co Gp Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Starboard Principal Co Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Starboard Value Lp	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mark R Mitchell	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Oliver Press Investors, Llc	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	152 WEST 57TH STREET NEW YORK NY 10019
Augustus K Oliver	10 percent owner, other: See Explanation of Responses	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY SCHOLASTIC CORP, 557 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10012
Starboard Value & Opportunity Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1	777 THIRD AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017