JOANN (JOANQ) Predictability Rank

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What is JOANN Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

JOANN Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

JOANN Predictability Rank Related Terms

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JOANN (JOANQ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » JOANN Inc (OTCPK:JOANQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5555 Darrow Road, Hudson, OH, USA, 44236

Website

https://www.joann.com

JOANN Inc is engaged in the sewing business. The company provides fabrics, sewing supplies, yarn and needle arts, paper crafting, jewelry making, fabric crafting, craft lights, wedding decorations, and home decor products. It generates maximum revenue from Arts and Crafts and Home Decor products.

Executives

Joseph Thibault	officer: SVP, Store Operations	5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
John Craig Stalcup	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	C/O JOANN INC., 5555 DARROW RD., HUDSON OH 44236
Marybeth Hays	director	C/O JO-ANN STORES HOLDINGS INC., 5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Scott Sekella	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O JOANN INC., 5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Ann Aber	officer: SVP, GC & Secretary	C/O JO-ANN STORES HOLDINGS INC., 5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Robert Will	officer: SVP, Chief Merch. Officer	C/O JO-ANN STORES HOLDINGS INC., 5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Christopher Ditullio	officer: SVP, Chief Customer Officer	C/O JO-ANN STORES HOLDINGS INC., 5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Green Equity Investors Cf, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Thomas A Dryer	officer: VP, Interim CFO & Controller	C/O JOANN INC., 5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Brian William Coleman	director	11111 SANTA MONICA BOULEVARD, SUITE 2000, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Mario Sampson	officer: SVP, Supply Chain	C/O JOANN INC., 5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Darrell Webb	director	5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Varadheesh Chennakrishnan	officer: SVP, CIO	C/O JO-ANN STORES HOLDINGS INC., 5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Matthew B. Susz	officer: SVP, CFO	C/O JO-ANN STORES HOLDINGS INC., 5555 DARROW ROAD, HUDSON OH 44236
Wade D Miquelon	director, officer: President and CEO	108 WILMOT ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015