Kirkland's (Kirkland's) Predictability Rank

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What is Kirkland's Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kirkland's Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kirkland's (Kirkland's) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Kirkland's Inc (NAS:KIRK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5310 Maryland Way, Brentwood, TN, USA, 37027

Website

https://www.kirklands.com

Kirkland's Inc is a specialty retailer of home decor and gifts in the United States. Its stores provide various merchandise, including holiday decor, framed arts, furniture, ornamental wall decor, fragrance and accessories, mirrors, lamps, decorative accessories, textiles, housewares, gifts, artificial floral products, frames, clocks, and outdoor living items. Its stores also offer an assortment of holiday merchandise in seasonal periods, as well as items that are suitable for gift-giving.

Executives

W Michael Madden	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O KIRKLAND'S INC, 431 SMITH LANE, JACKSON TN 38301
Amy Ervin Sullivan	officer: SVP, CMO	5310 MARYLAND WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Ann E Joyce	director	C/O AEROPOSTALE INC, 1372 BRAODWAY 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Osmium Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Diamond, Lp	10 percent owner	C/O OSMIUM PARTNERS, LLC, 300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Capital Lp	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Osmium Spartan L P	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
John Hartnett Lewis	10 percent owner	388 MARKET STREET, SUITE 920, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Osmium Capital Ii, Lp	10 percent owner	300 DRAKES LANDING ROAD, SUITE 172, GREENBRAE CA 94904
Jill A. Soltau	director	123 SOUTH FRONT STREET, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Nicole Allyson Strain	officer: Interim CFO	5310 MARYLAND WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Charles Iii Pleas	director	123 S. FRONT STREET, DEPT. 8074, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Michael A. Holland	officer: Sr. VP and CTO	5310 MARYLAND WAY, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Miles Kirkland	director	C/O KIRKLAND'S, INC., 2501 MCGAVOCK PIKE, SUITE 1000, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Orr Wilson R Iii	director	C/O KIRKLAND'S, INC., 2501 MCGAVOCK PIKE, SUITE 1000, NASHVILLE TN 37214