Kraton (Kraton) Predictability Rank

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What is Kraton Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kraton Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kraton (Kraton) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Kraton Corp (NYSE:KRA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

15710 John F. Kennedy Boulevard, Suite 300, Houston, TX, USA, 77032

Website

http://www.kraton.com

Kraton Corp is a specialty chemicals company that primarily manufactures elastomers and synthetic replacements for rubber. The company's operating segments include polymer and chemical. It generates a majority revenue from the polymer segment. The polymer segment is composed of styrenic block copolymers (SBCs) and other engineered polymers business. The firm's chemical segment is composed of its pine-based specialty products business. It is a geographically diverse company, oprating in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Asia-Pacific. The company's products are used in a wide range of applications, including adhesives, coatings, consumer and personal care products, sealants, lubricants, medical, packaging, automotive, paving and roofing, and footwear products.

Executives

Kevin Michael Fogarty	director, officer: President and CEO	30 GRAND GARDEN COURT, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Vijay Mhetar	officer: SVP, Chief Technology Officer	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77032
Marcello C Boldrini	officer: SVP & Chemical Seg. President	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD. SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77032
Chris H. Russell	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 300, HOUSOTN TX 77032
James Leo Simmons	officer: SVP, General Counsel & Sec.	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD. SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77032
Mark Santangelo	officer: SVP, Global Operations	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77032
Atanas H Atanasov	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP, 6120 S. YALE AVENUE, SUITE 805, TULSA OK 74136
Haddad Jose Fernando Cherubini	other: Former SVP, Global Operations	15710 JOHN F KENNEDY BLVD SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77032
Heba Botros	other: Former VP, Corp. Dev.	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD. SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77032
Holger R. Jung	officer: SVP & Polymer Seg. President	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD. SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77032
Suzanna Pesgens	officer: VP, Chief Procurement Officer	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD.,SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77004
Melinda Scissors Conley	officer: SVP & Chief HR Officer	15710 JFK BOULEVARD, SUITE 300 HOUSTON TX 77032
Shelley J Bausch	director	15710 JOHN F. KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77032
Billie Ida Williamson	director	151 DETROIT STREET, DENVER CO 80206
Dan F Smith	director	1221 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 700, HOUSTON TX 77010