Kronos Bio (Kronos Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Kronos Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kronos Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kronos Bio (Kronos Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Kronos Bio Inc (NAS:KRON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1300 So. El Camino Real, Suite 300, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94402

Website

https://www.kronosbio.com

Kronos Bio Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the discovery and development of novel cancer therapeutics designed to transform patient outcomes through a precision medicine strategy by targeting dysregulated transcription. The company operates in one business segment, the development of biopharmaceutical products.

Executives

Jorge Dimartino	officer: Chief Medical Officer & VP	C/O KRONOS BIO, INC., 1300 S, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Christopher Dinsmore	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O KRONOS BIO, INC., 1300 EL CAMINO REAL, STE. 300, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Barbara Kosacz	officer: COO & General Counsel	3175 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Norbert W Bischofberger	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO	333 LAKESIDE DR, C/O GILEAD SCIENCES, INC., FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Sandra A. Gardiner	officer: Interim CFO	CUTERA, INC., 3240 BAYSHORE BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005
Yasir B. Al-wakeel	officer: Chief Financial Officer	MERRIMACK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE KENDALL SQUARE, SUITE B7201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Roger D Dansey	director	21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Katherine V Stultz	director	C/O GRAPHITE BIO, INC., 279 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SUITE 430, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Backer Marianne De	director	177 E COLORADO BLVD, SUITE 700, PASADENA CA 91105
Roshawn A. Blunt	director	11682 EL CAMINO REAL STE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Jakob Loven	director	C/O ARVINAS, INC., 5 SCIENCE PARK, 395 WINCHESTER AVENUE, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Taiyin Yang	director	2631 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Otello Stampacchia	director, 10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
John C Martin	director	333 LAKESIDE DRIVE, FOSTER CITY X1 94404
Elena Ridloff	director	C/O ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 12830 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 400, SAN DIEGO CA 92130