What is Kintara Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Kintara Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Kintara Therapeutics (Kintara Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
9920 Pacific Heights Blvd, Suite 150, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
Kintara Therapeutics Inc is engaged in the development of novel cancer therapies for patients with unmet medical needs. The company is developing two late-stage, Phase 3-ready therapeutics for clear unmet medical needs with reduced risk development programs. The two programs are VAL-083 for GBM and REM-001 for CMBC. VAL-083 is a small-molecule chemotherapeutic with a novel mechanism of action that has demonstrated clinical activity against a range of cancers, including the central nervous system, ovarian, and other solid tumors. The company operates within a single operating segment the research and development of cancer indications, and operates primarily in one geographic area, being North America.
Executives
| Robert Hoffman |
director, officer: President and CEO |
ARENA PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 6166 NANCY RIDER DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Anthony Scott Praill |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2001-889 HOMER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6B 5S3 |
| Saiid Zarrabian |
director, officer: Head of Strategic Partnerships |
P.O. BOX 675765, RANCHO SANTA FE CA 92067 |
| Laura L. Johnson |
director |
C/O LA JOLLA PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY, LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 1070, SAN DIEGO CA 92122 |
| Tamara A Seymour |
director |
C/O SIGNAL GENETICS, INC., 5740 FLEET STREET, CARLSBAD CA 92008 |
| Toth Robert Joseph Jr |
director |
543 LOMBARD ST, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133 |
| Dennis M Brown |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
100 SAN MATEO DR, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Keith Murphy |
director |
6275 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 110, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| John Liatos |
director, officer: SVP, Business Development |
12707 HIGH BLUFF DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92130 |
| John K Bell |
director |
38 FALLBROOK LANE RR 33, CAMBRIDGE A6 N3H 4R8 |
| Napoleone Ferrara |
director |
550 FRONT STREET, UNIT 1103, SAN DIEGO CA 92101 |
| Lynda Sarah Cranston |
director |
4316 LOCARNO CRESCENT, VANCOUVER A1 V6R 1G3 |
| Erich Mohr |
director |
8300 GREENSBORO DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102 |
| Jeffrey Bacha |
director |
SUITE 3 1545 WEST 14TH AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 2J1 |
| William J Garner |
director |
875 MAHLER ROAD, SUITE 235, BURLINGAME CA 94010 |
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