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LIV Capital Acquisition (LIV Capital Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is LIV Capital Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LIV Capital Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

LIV Capital Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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LIV Capital Acquisition (LIV Capital Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » LIV Capital Acquisition Corp (NAS:LIVKU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Torre Virreyes, Pedregal No. 24, Piso 6-601, Col. Molino del Rey, Mexico City, MEX, MEX, 11040
Website
http://livcapital.mx
LIV Capital Acquisition Corp is a blank check company. The company was formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, recapitalization, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses or entities.
Executives
Guillermo Gonzalez Guajardo director LIV CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., TORRES VIRREYES PEDREGAL NO24 PISO 6-601, COL. MOLINO DEL REY MEXICO O5 CDMX 11040
Wanless Juan Marco Gutierrez director LIV CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., TORRES VIRREYES PEDREGAL NO24 PISO 6-601, COL. MOLINO DEL REY MEXICO O5 CDMX 11040
Alvarez Alejandro J. Perez officer: Deputy CEO LIV CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., TORRES VIRREYES PEDREGAL NO24 PISO 6-601, COL. MOLINO DEL REY MEXICO O5 CDMX 11040
Campos Carlos Alberto Rohm director LIV CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., TORRES VIRREYES PEDREGAL NO24 PISO 6-601, COL. MOLINO DEL REY MEXICO O5 CDMX 11040
Miguel Angel Davila director C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Gamero Luis Rodrigo Clemente officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Liv Capital Acquisition Sponsor, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Alexander R. Rossi director, officer: CEO and Chairman C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Humberto Zesati director C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Arroyo Jose Antonio Solano director C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Liv Gp Master, S.a.p.i. De C.v. 10 percent owner C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104