La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co (La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co) Predictability Rank

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What is La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co (La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co (NAS:LJPC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 Jones Road, Suite 400, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

http://www.ljpc.com

La Jolla Pharmaceutical Co is a biopharmaceutical company. The company's main activity is the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative therapies that improve patients' life-threatening conditions. The company's portfolio consists of an angiotensin II formulation, which regulates blood pressure; a formulation of hepcidin, an endogenous peptide hormone that regulates iron metabolism; and an antibiotic approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Executives

Larry G. Edwards	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TETRAPHASE PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 480 ARSENAL STREET, SUITE 110, WATERTOWN MA 02472
David A Ramsay	director	HALOZYME THERAPEUTICS, INC., 11588 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, #17, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Craig A Johnson	director	C/O PURE BIOSCIENCE, 1725 GILLESPIE WAY, EL CAJON CA 92020
Michael S Hearne	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE SUITE 210 SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robert Rosen	director	C/O HERON THERAPEUTICS, INC, 4242 CAMPUS POINT COURT, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Kevin C Tang	director, 10 percent owner	4747 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Laura L. Johnson	director	C/O LA JOLLA PHARMACEUTICAL COMPANY, LA JOLLA VILLAGE DRIVE, SUITE 1070, SAN DIEGO CA 92122
Darryl Wellinghoff	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	4550 TOWNE CENTRE COURT SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Lakhmir S Chawla	officer: Chief Medical Officer	1960 KIRBY ROAD, MCLEAN VA 22101
Jennifer Carver	officer: Sr. Vice President, Operations	725 NEWPORT STREET, DENVER CO 80220
James Rolke	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	10182 TELESIS COURT, 6TH FLOOR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Joseph Edelman	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
George F Tidmarsh	director, officer: President, CEO & Secretary