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Ovivo (LVGAF) Predictability Rank


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What is Ovivo Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ovivo Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Ovivo Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ovivo (LVGAF) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Ovivo Inc (OTCPK:LVGAF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SZSE:000820 TSE:6328 PGTK TPE:1535 SZSE:002499 HKSE:00556 BOM:500214 LIQT HKSE:02377 TSXV:QST ASX:FLC HKSE:01296 XKRX:009440 LSE:AFS TPE:6641 OCSE:WATURU XKRX:119650 PPIH TSE:6489 SZSE:300362
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.glv.com
Ovivo Inc was incorporated in May 15, 2007 in Canada. The Company is a provider of technological solutions used in water treatment well as in pulp and paper production. The Corporation operates in more than 25 countries. The Company and its subsidiaries conduct their activities in two main groups: Ovivo and GL&V Pulp and Paper. The Water Treatment Group (Ovivo) designs and markets treatment and recycling solutions and components for municipal and industrial wastewater as well as water used in various industrial processes. The Group also develops seawater desalination technologies and offers water intake screening solutions for power stations, refineries and water desalination facilities. With its technological portfolio, it is positioned to provide comprehensive solutions for the filtration, clarification, treatment and purification of water to be returned into the environment, re-used in various industrial processes or used for domestic purposes. The pulp and paper Group designs and markets equipment used in various stages of paper production, from pulp preparation to sheet formation and finishing. It also serves with rebuilding, upgrading and optimization services for existing equipment, as well as the sale of replacement parts. The Company operates in following geographic segment: United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Other - Europe and Russia, Asia and Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa & Latin America.