Foot Locker (Foot Locker) Predictability Rank

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What is Foot Locker Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Foot Locker Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Foot Locker Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Foot Locker (Foot Locker) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Foot Locker Inc (NYSE:FL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FL:Mexico WOO:Germany FOOT:Austria

Address

330 West 34th Street, New York, NY, USA, 10001

Website

http://www.footlocker-inc.com

Foot Locker Inc operates thousands of retail stores throughout the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. It also has one franchisee in the Middle East and one in South Korea, each of which operates multiple stores in those regions. The company mainly sells athletically inspired shoes and apparel. Foot Locker's merchandise comes from only a few suppliers, with Nike providing the majority. Store names include Foot Locker, Champs, and Runners Point. The company also has an e-commerce business selling through Footlocker.com, Eastbay, and Final-Score.

Executives

Mary N Dillon	director, officer: President & CEO	ULTA BEAUTY, INC., 1000 REMINGTON BLVD SUITE 120, BOLINGBROOK IL 60440
Jennifer Kraft	officer: EVP and General Counsel	C/O FOOT LOCKER, INC., NEW YORK NY 10001
Michael Baughn	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O FOOT LOCKER, INC., 140 FOUNTAIN PARKWAY, ST. PETERSBURG FL 33716
Robert Higginbotham	officer: Interim CFO	C/O FOOT LOCKER, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
John A Maurer	officer: VP, Treasurer	FOOT LOCKER, INC., 112 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10120
Giovanna Cipriano	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	FOOT LOCKER, INC., 112 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10120
Todd Greener	officer: SVP, Global Supply Chain	330 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Richard A Johnson	director, officer: President & CEO	FOOT LOCKER, INC., 112 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10120
Rosalind Reeves	officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer	C/O FOOT LOCKER, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Elliott Rodgers	officer: EVP, Chief Operations Officer	C/O LEVI STRAUSS & CO., 1155 BATTERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Vesa Equity Investment S.a R.l.	10 percent owner	2, PLACE DE PARIS, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2314
Nitin Neil Bansal	officer: EVP,Chief Strat&Transform Off	C/O FOOT LOCKER, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Andrew E Page	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O FOOT LOCKER, INC., 330 WEST 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001
Samantha Lomow	officer: President, Global Brands	2400 WEST CENTRAL ROAD, HOFFMAN ESTATES IL 60192
Virginia Drosos	director	CLARENDON HOUSE, 2 CHURCH STREET, HAMILTON D0 HM11