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Motive Capital II (Motive Capital II) Predictability Rank


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What is Motive Capital II Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Motive Capital II Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Motive Capital II Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Motive Capital II (Motive Capital II) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Motive Capital Corp II (NYSE:MTVC.U) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
DHHC GSQD COLI RONI SPGS HCIC ACII SCOB ROSS SCLE GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
250 Greenwich Street, 7 World Trade Center, Floor 47, New York, NY, USA, 10007
Website
https://www.motivecapitalcorpii.com
Motive Capital Corp II is a blank check company.
Executives
Kenneth C Griffin 10 percent owner CITADEL INVESTMENT GROUP LLC, 131 S DEARBORN STREET 32ND FL, CHICAGO IL 60603
Citadel Securities Llc 10 percent owner 131 SOUTH DEARBORN STREET, CHICAGO IL 60603
Citadel Gp Llc 10 percent owner 131 DEARBORN ST., 32ND FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Citadel Advisors Llc 10 percent owner SOUTHEAST FINANCIAL CENTER, 200 S. BISCAYNE BLVD., SUITE 3300, MIAMI FL 33131
Citadel Advisors Holdings Lp 10 percent owner 131 S. DEARBORN ST., 32ND FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60603
Citadel Securities Gp Llc 10 percent owner SOUTHEAST FINANCIAL CENTER, 200 S. BISCAYNE BLVD., SUITE 3300, MIAMI FL 33131
Dina Dublon director J.P. MORGAN CHASE & CO., 270 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Jill M Considine director C/O AMBAC FINANCIAL GROUP INC, 1 STATE STREET PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10004
Heyvaert Paul Luc Robert director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Exec. Chairman & Dir. 601 RIVERSIDE AVE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Blythe Masters officer: President 1601 ELM STREET, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75201
Paula Madoff director C/O KKR REAL ESTATE FINANCE TRUST INC., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Stephen C. Daffron director C/O THE DUN & BRADSTREET CORPORATION, 103 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078-2708
Kristy Trieste director, officer: CFO and Director C/O MOTIVE CAPITAL, 250 GREENWICH STREET, FLOOR 47, NEW YORK NY 10007
Motive Capital Funds Sponsor Ii, Llc 10 percent owner 7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, FLOOR 47, NEW YORK NY 10007