Nuveen Build America Oppurtunity Fund (Nuveen Build America Oppurtunity Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Nuveen Build America Oppurtunity Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nuveen Build America Oppurtunity Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nuveen Build America Oppurtunity Fund (Nuveen Build America Oppurtunity Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Nuveen Build America Oppurtunity Fund (NYSE:NBD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.nuveen.com

Nuveen Build America Oppurtunity Fund is a closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide current income through investments in taxable municipal securities by investing in a portfolio of taxable municipal securities.

Executives

William A Siffermann	officer: Vice President	C/O NUVEEN, 333 W. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Demark L Winget	officer: Vice President	C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, 333 W WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
William T. Meyers	officer: Vice President	C/O NUVEEN, 333 W. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Michael A Perry	officer: Vice President	101 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 1400, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Young L Robert	other: Trustee	1111 POLARIS PARKWAY, COLUMBUS OH 43240
Nuveen Fund Advisors, Llc	other: Investment Adviser	333 W. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606
Christopher M. Rohrbacher	officer: Vice President	333 W. WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606
Albin F Moschner	other: Trustee	C/O LURIO & ASSOCIATES, P.C., 2005 MARKET STREET, SUITE 3120, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Nathaniel T. Jones	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	C/O NUVEEN 333 W. WACKER DRIVE, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Margaret L. Wolff	other: Trustee	C/O NUVEEN 333 W. WACKER DR., STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Sherri A Hlavacek	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606
Gifford R Zimmerman	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	333 W WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606
David J Lamb	officer: Vice President	333 W WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606
Schreier Thomas S Jr	other: Trustee	C/O NORTHWEST AIRLINES, 1689 NONCONNAN BLVD, MEMPHIS TN 38132
John Kevin Nelson	other: Trustee	C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, 333 W. WACKER DR, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606

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