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NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND (NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND) Predictability Rank


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What is NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND (NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND INC. (AMEX:NBO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FGB NXN EDI HTY GROW FMY MGLD ICMB MXE TURN BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
c/o Neuberger Berman Investment Advisers LLC, 1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10104-0002
Website
https://www.nb.com
NEUBERGER BERMAN NEW YORK MUNICIPAL FUND INC. is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund's investment objective is to provide a high level of current income exempt from federal income tax.
Executives
Saba Capital Management, L.p. 10 percent owner 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Boaz Weinstein 10 percent owner 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Franklyn E. Smith director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104-0002
Ami Kaplan director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104-0002
Bradley Tank other: CEO of Affil. of Inv. Mgr. C/O LEHMAN BROTHERS ASSET MANAGEMENT, 190 SOUTH LASALLE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60603-3421
Stephen Blake Miller other: Portfolio Manager C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
James Iselin other: Portfolio Manager C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-3698
Faith Colish other: Retired Director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT INC, 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
James G. Stavridis director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
Deborah C. Mclean director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
Marc Gary director C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-3698
Michael J. Cosgrove director C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Brian Patrick Kerrane officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158
Blue Ridge Investments, L.l.c. 10 percent owner ONE BRYANT PARK, NEW YORK NY 10036
Bank Of America Na 10 percent owner 100 N. TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255

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