NorthStar Healthcareome (NorthStar Healthcareome) Predictability Rank

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What is NorthStar Healthcareome Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NorthStar Healthcareome Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NorthStar Healthcareome (NorthStar Healthcareome) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » NorthStar Healthcare Income Inc (OTCPK:NHHS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

16 East 34th Street, 18th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10016

Website

https://www.northstarhealthcarereit.com

NorthStar Healthcare Income Inc is a real estate investment trust. The trust is formed to acquire, originate and asset manage a diversified portfolio of equity, debt and securities investments in healthcare real estate, directly or through joint ventures, with a focus on the mid-acuity seniors housing sector, such as assisted living, memory care, skilled nursing and independent living facilities and continuing care retirement communities. It also invests in other healthcare property types, including medical office buildings, hospitals, rehabilitation facilities and ancillary healthcare services businesses. The trust operates in five segments namely Direct Investments - Net Lease; Direct Investments - Operating; Unconsolidated Investments; Debt and Securities Investments; and Corporate.

Executives

Ann Harrington	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O COLONY NORTHSTAR, INC., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kendall K Young	officer: CEO and President	3760 KILROY AIRPORT WAY, SUITE 300, LONG BEACH CA 90806
Nicholas Balzo	officer: Chief Financial Officer	201 COMMONS PARK S, UNIT 502, STAMFORD CT 06902
Paul Varisano	officer: Chief Financial Officer	590 MADISON AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Neale Redington	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O COLONY NORTHSTAR, INC., 515 S. FLOWER ST., 44TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Jonathan A. Carnella	director	C/O NORTHSTAR HEALTHCARE INCOME, INC., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Richard S. Welch	director, officer: Chairman	C/O COLONY NORTHSTAR, INC., 515 S. FLOWER STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Smith Jack Fleming Jr.	director	C/O NORTHSTAR REALTY FINANCE CORP., 399 PARK AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Gregory A Samay	director	C/O NORTHSTAR HEALTHCARE INCOME INC, 399 PARK AVE 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Thomas Andrew Smith	director	111 WESTWOOD PLACE, SUITE 400, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Justin T Chang	director, officer: Chairman	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Daniel Joseph Altobello	director	6550 ROCK SPRING DR, SUITE 550, BETHESDA MD 20817
Robert C Gatenio	director, officer: Vice Chairman	C/O COLONY NORTHSTAR, INC., 590 MADISON AVENUE, 34TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Frank V Saracino	officer: CFO and Treasurer	399 PARK AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ronald J Jeanneault	officer: CEO and President	C/O NORTHSTAR HEALTHCARE INCOME, INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 18TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022

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