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New Vista Acquisition (New Vista Acquisition) Predictability Rank


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What is New Vista Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

New Vista Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

New Vista Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

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New Vista Acquisition (New Vista Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » New Vista Acquisition Corp (NAS:NVSAU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
EAC ATVC PMGM PICC FTVI CNDA EMLD MDH SWET FTPA GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
125 South Wacker Drive, Suite 300, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606
Website
https://www.newvistacap.com
New Vista Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Marion C Blakey director C/O ALASKA AIR GROUP, INC., 19300 INTERNATIONAL BLVD, SEATTLE WA 98188
Dennis A Muilenburg director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman 100 N RIVERSIDE PLAZA M/C 5003-1001, CHICAGO IL 60606
Howard L Lance director C/O SUMMIT MATERIALS, INC., 1550 WYNKOOP STREET, 3RD FLOOR, DENVER CO 80202
Travis Nelson director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-President, CFO 4 BATTERYMARCH PARK, QUINCY MA 02169
Christopher B Lofgren director 520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Wilson Stephen W. S. director 125 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60606
Touw Kirsten Bartok director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-President, COO 125 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60606
New Vista Acquisition Sponsor Llc director, 10 percent owner 125 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 300, CHICAGO IL 60606