Nuveen Dividend Advantage Muni Fund 2 (Nuveen Dividend Advantage Muni Fund 2) Predictability Rank

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What is Nuveen Dividend Advantage Muni Fund 2 Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nuveen Dividend Advantage Muni Fund 2 Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nuveen Dividend Advantage Muni Fund 2 (Nuveen Dividend Advantage Muni Fund 2) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Nuveen Dividend Advantage Muni Fund 2 (AMEX:NXZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

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Address

Website

http://www.nuveen.com

Nuveen Dividend Advantage Muni Fund 2 invests in municipal securities that are exempt from federal income taxes. The Company's investment objective is to provide current income exempt from regular federal income tax and to enhance portfolio value.

Executives

Margaret L. Wolff	other: Trustee	C/O NUVEEN 333 W. WACKER DR., STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Sherri A Hlavacek	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	333 WEST WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606
David J Lamb	officer: Vice President	333 W WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606
Gifford R Zimmerman	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	333 W WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606
Citigroup Inc	10 percent owner	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
John Kevin Nelson	other: Trustee	C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, 333 W. WACKER DR, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Schreier Thomas S Jr	other: Trustee	C/O NORTHWEST AIRLINES, 1689 NONCONNAN BLVD, MEMPHIS TN 38132
Joel T. Slager	officer: Vice President	C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, 333 W. WACKER DR, STE 3400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Steven M. Hlavin	other: Portfolio Manager	333 W. WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 2900, CHICAGO IL 60606
Spalding Thomas C Jr	officer: V.P. & Portfolio Manager	333 W WACKER DRIVE, C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, CHICAGO IL 60606
Douglas J White	other: Portfolio Manager	800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Virginia Stringer	other: Trustee	800 NICOLLET MALL, C/O US BANCORP ASSET MANAGEMENT, MINNEAPOLIS MI 55402
Kathleen L Prudhomme	officer: Vice President	800 NICOLLET MALL, MAIL STOP BC-MN-H21C, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Christopher L Drahn	other: Portfolio Manager	800 NICOLLET MALL, MAIL STOP BC-MN-H21C, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Michael S. Hamilton	other: Portfolio Manager	C/O NUVEEN INVESTMENTS, 333 W. WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO IL 60606

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