GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » OmniLit Acquisition Corp (NAS:OLIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

OmniLit Acquisition (OmniLit Acquisition) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is OmniLit Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OmniLit Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

OmniLit Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of OmniLit Acquisition's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

OmniLit Acquisition (OmniLit Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » OmniLit Acquisition Corp (NAS:OLIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
AFAR LBBB ROSE ROCL ITAQ JAQC SEPA WTMA INTE MBTC PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1111 Lincoln Road, Suite 500, Miami Beach, FL, USA, 33139
Website
https://www.omnilitac.com
OmniLit Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Brent David Rosenthal director C/O WR HUFF ASSET MANAGEMENT, 67 PARK PLACE, MORRISTOWN NJ 07960
Albert Manzone director C/O MERISANT, AVENUE JEAN-JACQUES ROUSSEAU 7, NEUCHATEL V8 CH-2000
Walter A. Bishop director 813 REGENT DRIVE, WESTBURY NY 11590
Goldman Sachs & Co. Llc 10 percent owner 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Goldman Sachs Group Inc 10 percent owner 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Jeffrey A Altman 10 percent owner 640 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Owl Creek Asset Management, L.p. 10 percent owner 640 FIFTH AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Polar Asset Management Partners Inc. 10 percent owner 16 YORK STREET SUITE 2900, TORONTO A6 M5J 0E6
James M. Jenkins director 1600 BAUSCH & LOMB PLACE, ROCHESTER NY 14604
Kent R Weldon director C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P., 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Brian F. Hughes director 124 COLONIAL RIDGE DRIVE, HADDONFIELD NJ 08033
Mark D Norman director C/O ZIPCAR, INC., 25 FIRST STREET, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Skylar Jacobs officer: Chief Operating Officer 1 IRVING TERRACE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Nelson Robert O Ii officer: CFO and Secretary 29 HIDDEN ROAD, WESTON MA 02493
Alok Kapoor director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO 157 BEAVER, WESTON MA 02493