Opiant Pharmaceuticals (Opiant Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Opiant Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Opiant Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Opiant Pharmaceuticals (Opiant Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Opiant Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:OPNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

233 Wilshire Boulevard, Suite 280, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 90401

Website

https://www.opiant.com

Opiant Pharmaceuticals Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company operating in the US. It develops pharmacological treatments for substance use, addictive and eating disorders. The company has developed NARCAN, a Nasal Spray for treatment to reverse opioid overdoses. The company's pipeline includes medicines in development for Opioid Overdose Reversal (OOR), Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD), Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) and Acute Cannabinoid Overdose (ACO). The majority of the revenue is generated in the form of Royalty and licensing.

Executives

David D O'toole	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1640 MARENGO STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90033
Ellison Mark Jason Heath	other: UK Managing Director	C/O OPIANT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 201 SANTA MONICA BLVD., SUITE 500, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Roger Crystal	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	445 PARK AVE, 10TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10022
Phil Skolnick	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O DOV PHARMACEUTICAL, INC., 433 HACKENSACK AVENUE, HACKENSACK NJ 07601
Brian Gorman	other: General Counsel	233 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 280, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Matthew R. Ruth	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	233 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 280, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Michael Sinclair	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	86 GLOUCESTER PLACE, LONDON XX W1U6HP
Craig A Collard	director	C/O CORNERSTONE THERAPEUTICS INC., 1255 CRESCENT GREEN DRIVE, SUITE 250, CARY NC 27518
Ann L. Macdougall	director	C/O OPIANT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 401 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 12TH FLOOR, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Thomas T. Thomas	director	C/O OPIANT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 401 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 12TH FLOOR, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Masuoka K. Lorianne	director	C/O NEKTAR THERAPEUTICS, 201 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Gabrielle Alison Silver	director	C/O OPIANT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 401 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 12TH FLOOR, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Rahsaan Thompson	other: General Counsel	233 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 280, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Aziz Mottiwala	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	233 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 280, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Richard J Daly	director	355 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, SUITE 1500, CORAL GABLES FL 33134