Pear Therapeutics (Pear Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Pear Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pear Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pear Therapeutics (Pear Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Pear Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:PEARQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 State Street, 13th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02109

Website

https://www.peartherapeutics.com

Pear Therapeutics Inc is a commercial-stage healthcare company pioneering a new class of software-based medicines, sometimes referred to as Prescription Digital Therapeutics (PDTs), which use software to treat diseases directly. The company's vision is to advance healthcare through the widespread use of PDTs and to be the one-stop shop for PDTs offered by Pear and other organizations that may choose to make their products available to patients, providers, and payors via its commercial platform, known as PearConnect. It features four distinct system components, consisting of PDTs for patient use, the PearMD Clinician Dashboard, an end-to-end patient service center, and a data analytics system configured to aggregate patient engagement, adherence, and clinical outcome data.

Executives

5am Partners Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Erin K. Brenner	officer: Chief Product Dev. Officer	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Julia Strandberg	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Ronan O'brien	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Mccann Corey	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Yuri Maricich	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Ellen Snow	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Christopherd T Guiffre	officer: CFO, COO, Treas., & Asst. Sec.	65 HAYDEN AVE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Katherine Jeffery	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Paul Mango	director	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Timothy A Wicks	director	C/O PRECISION CASTPARTS CORP., 4650 SW MACADAM AVENUE, SUITE 400, PORTLAND OR 97239
Shivakumar Rajaraman	director	6260 LOOKOUT ROAD, BOULDER CO 80301
Klp Spac 1 Llc	10 percent owner	195 CHURCH STREET , 15TH FLOOR, NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Zack Lynch	director	C/O PEAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 STATE STREET, 13TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Elbrus Investments Pte. Ltd.	10 percent owner	60B ORCHARD ROAD #06-18, THE ATRIUM@ORCHARD, SINGAPORE U0 238891