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Pontem (Pontem) Predictability Rank


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What is Pontem Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pontem Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Pontem Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Pontem (Pontem) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Pontem Corp (NYSE:PNTM.U) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
APGB LGV FVIV SCRM VYGG APSG CONX ETAC BOAC EOCW GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2170 Buckthorne Place, Suite 320, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77380
Website
https://www.pontemcorp.com
Pontem Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
David Hagen director 2170 BUCKTHORNE PLACE, SUITE 320, THE WOODLANDS TX 77390
Robert G Bohn director ONE PARK PLAZA, 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
James Gentilcore director NINE HAMPSHIRE STREET, MANSFIELD MA 02048
Hubertus M Muhlhauser director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO MANITOWOC FOODSERVICE INC., 2227 WELBILT AVENUE, NEW PORT RICHEY FL 34655
Erik Olsson director C/O RSC HOLDINGS INC., 6929 E. GREENWAY PARKWAY, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254
Luciano Mozzato director 10205 WESTHEIMER, SUITE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77042
Pontem Llc 10 percent owner 1140 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Nina Murphy officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O PONTEM CORPORATION, 1140 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Burak Alici director, 10 percent owner, officer: Lead Director C/O PONTEM CORPORATION, 1140 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Peter Grosch director C/O PONTEM CORPORATION, 1140 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Sm-invest 10 percent owner HURDNERSTRASSE 60, CH-8640 HURDEN, SCHWYZ V8 00000