Pine Technology Acquisition (Pine Technology Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is Pine Technology Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pine Technology Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pine Technology Acquisition (Pine Technology Acquisition) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Pine Technology Acquisition Corp (NAS:PTOC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

260 Lena Drive, Aurora, OH, USA, 44202

Website

https://www.pinetechnology.com

Pine Technology Acquisition Corp is a newly organized blank check company. It is formed for the purpose of effecting a merger, capital stock exchange, asset acquisition, stock purchase, reorganization or similar business combination with one or more businesses.

Executives

Ciro M Defalco	officer: CFO, Treasurer and Secretary	C/O THE NAVIGATORS GROUP, INC., 6 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Stone Point Capital Llc	10 percent owner	20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Barry D Zyskind	10 percent owner	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Christopher Longo	director, officer: CEO and Director	59 MAIDEN LANE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Adam Karkowsky	director	C/O AMTRUST FINANCIAL SERVICES INC., 59 MAIDEN LANE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Bradley Tusk	director	251 PARK AVENUE SOUTH, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Nicolas D Zerbib	director	JAMES RIVER GROUP, INC., 1414 RALEIGH ROAD, SUITE 415, CHAPEL HILL NC 27517
Trident Vii, L.p.	10 percent owner	STONE POINT CAPITAL LLC, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Trident Vii Parallel Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	STONE POINT CAPITAL LLC, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Pine Technology Sponsor Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O PINE TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORP., 260 LENA DRIVE, AURORA OH 44202
Trident Pine Acquisition Lp	10 percent owner	C/O STONE POINT CAPITAL LLC, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
John Eric Smith	director	260 LENA DRIVE, AURORA OH 44202
Peel Acquisition Co Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PINE TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORP., 260 LENA DRIVE, AURORA OH 44202
Trident Pine Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O STONE POINT CAPITAL LLC, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Trident Capital Vii, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O STONE POINT CAPITAL LLC, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830