Renovacor (Renovacor) Predictability Rank

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What is Renovacor Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Renovacor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Renovacor (Renovacor) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Renovacor Inc (AMEX:RCOR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

P.O. Box 8142, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06836

Website

https://www.renovacor.com

Renovacor Inc is a preclinical stage gene therapy company developing a pipeline of innovative and proprietary AAV-based gene therapies for BAG3 gene mutation-associated diseases in areas of high unmet medical need. Its therapeutic focus is on cardiovascular disease, with a lead program in BAG3 mutation-associated dilated cardiomyopathy.

Executives

Joseph S Carroll	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O RENOVACOR, INC., 5 MEAD POINT DRIVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Gregory F Covino	director	C/O RICHARD W DAVIES HUBBELL INC, 684 DERBY MILFORD RD, ORANGE CT 06477
Joan Lau	director	C/O RENOVACOR, INC., 5 MEAD POINT DRIVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Benz Edward J. Jr	director	C/O DECIPHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 200 SMITH STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Needham Thomas E. Jr.	director	MERRIMACK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE KENDALL SQUARE, SUITE B7201, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Frederick W Driscoll	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Jonas Grossman	director	17 STREET, SUITE 1600, NEW YORK NY 10004
Gbolahan Amusa	director	17 STATE STREET 21 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10004
Magdalene Cook	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O RENOVACOR, INC., 5 MEAD POINT DRIVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Matthew Killeen	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O RENOVACOR, INC., 5 MEAD POINT DRIVE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Rtw Investments, Lp	10 percent owner	40 10TH AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Rtw Master Fund, Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9008
Roderick Wong	10 percent owner	C/O RTW INVESTMENTS, LP, 40 10TH AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Marc Semigran	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O MYOKARDIA, INC., 333 ALLERTON AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Wendy F Dicicco	officer: Interim CFO