Regado Biosciences (Regado Biosciences) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Regado Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Regado Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Regado Biosciences Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Regado Biosciences's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Regado Biosciences (Regado Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Regado Biosciences Inc (NAS:RGDO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.tobiratherapeutics.com

Regado Biosciences Inc was incorporated in Delaware under the name Quartet Biosciences, Inc. in December 2001 and changed its name to Regado Biosciences, Inc. in March 2003. It is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery and development of antithrombotic drug systems for acute and sub-acute cardiovascular indications. The Company's product candidates consists of a two-component system: an aptamer and its specific active control agent. The aptamer is administered first and achieves its therapeutic effect within minutes. When the therapeutic effect of the aptamer is no longer needed, the control agent is administered to rapidly and precisely reduce or eliminate it. The level of reduction is determined by the amount of control agent given compared to the aptamer dose. The Company's product candidate, REG1, consists of pegnivacogin, a highly potent and selective anticoagulant, and anivamersen, its specific active control agent. The Company is developing REG1 as an anticoagulant for use in patients with cardiovascular conditions undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, or PCI, a hospital-based procedure used to mechanically open or widen obstructed coronary arteries.

Executives

Domain Parters Vii L P	10 percent owner	ONE PALMER SQUARE SUITE 515, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Associates Domain	10 percent owner	ONE PALMER SQUARE, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Dp Vi Associates, L.p.	10 percent owner	ONE PALMER SQUARE, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Brian K Halak	10 percent owner	C/O DOMAIN ASSOCIATES, ONE PALMER SQUARE, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Kim P. Kamdar	10 percent owner	C/O DOMAIN ASSOCIATES, L.L.C., ONE PALMER SQUARE, SUITE 515, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Eckard Weber	director	C/O DOMAIN ASSOCIATES, ONE PALO SQ, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Brian H Dovey	10 percent owner	ONE PALMER SQUARE, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Patrick J Heron	director	550 HAMILTON AVE., SUITE 100, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Dp Vii Associates Lp	10 percent owner	ONE PALMER SQ, STE 515, PRINCETON NJ 08542
Jeffrey H Cooper	director	BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC., 105 DIGITAL DRIVE, NOVATO CA 94949
Pierre Legault	director	P.O. BOX 1028, C/O STONE MANAGEMENT LLC, BERWYNE PA 19312
Frazier Healthcare V, Lp	10 percent owner	601 UNION STREET, SUITE 3200, SEATTLE WA 98101
Christopher Peetz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TOBIRA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 701 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, #200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Andrew J. Fromkin	director	C/O RADIUS HEALTH, INC., 201 BROADWAY, 6TH FL, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Carol L Brosgart	director	C/O TOBIRA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 701 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080

Regado Biosciences (Regado Biosciences) Headlines

No Headlines