Regional Health Properties (Regional Health Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is Regional Health Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Regional Health Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Regional Health Properties (Regional Health Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Regional Health Properties Inc (AMEX:RHE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RHE.PRA.PFD:USA

Address

454 Satellite Boulevard NW, Suite 100, Suwanee, GA, USA, 30024-7191

Website

https://www.regionalhealthproperties.com

Regional Health Properties Inc is a self-managed healthcare real estate investment company that invests primarily in real estate purposed for senior living and long-term healthcare through facility lease and sub-lease transactions. It has two reportable segments real estate segment and the healthcare services segment. It derives the majority of its revenue from the healthcare services segment. Its portfolio of more than 20 properties is diversified across various states, with concentrations in Georgia and Ohio.

Executives

Brent Morrison	director	454 SATELLITE BLVD, NW #100, SUWANEE GA 30341
Paul Jason O'sullivan	officer: Senior Vice President	454 SATELLITE BLVD, NW, 100, SUWANEE GA 30024
Steven L Martin	director	153 EAST 53RD STREET, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Kenneth S Grossman	director	18 NORFOLK RD, GREAT NECK NY 11020
David A Tenwick	director	8503 MISTY WOODS CIRCLE, POWELL OH 43065
Benjamin A Waites	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8215 ROSWELL ROAD, BUILDING 600, ATLANTA GA 30350
Charles L Frischer	10 percent owner	3156 EAST LAURELHURST DRIVE, NE, SEATTLE WA 98105
Kenneth Wayne Taylor	director	454 SATELLITE BOULEVARD, SUWANEE GA 30024
Brian M Szames	director	454 SATELLITE BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, SUWANEE GA 30024
E Clinton Cain	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1145 HEMBREE ROAD, ROSWELL GA 30076
Park City Capital, Llc	director	12400 COIT ROAD, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75251
Thomas W Knaup	director	1145 HEMBREE ROAD, ROSWELL GA 30076
Susan I. Christensen	officer: VP Sales/Infant Products Div	711 WEST WALNUT STREET, COMPTON CA 90220
Allan J Rimland	officer: President & CFO	1145 HEMBREE ROAD, ROSWELL GA 30076
Philip S Radcliffe	director	106 BURNHAM, WILLIAMSBURG VA 23188