Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
RealD Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
Predictables
Non-Predictable
All stocks
Total Number of stocks
570
1833
2403
Total Lost Money
61
830
891
Total Lost More Than 50%
18
412
430
Total Lost More Than 90%
4
86
90
Average Gain
260.6%
100.0%
138.1%
Median Gain
150.0%
13.0%
39.0%
Maximum Gain
2852.0%
11483.0%
11483.0%
Maximum Loss
-100.0%
-100.0%
-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain
12.7%
6.7%
8.4%
Annualized Median Gain
8.9%
1.1%
3.1%
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of RealD's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
RealD Inc is a Deleware corporation founded in 2003. The Company is a licensor of 3D and other visual technologies. The Company licenses its RealD Cinema Systems to motion picture exhibitors that show 3D motion pictures and alternative 3D content. It also provides certain of its technologies and active and passive eyewear to consumer electronics manufacturers and content distributors. The Company's trademarks include RealD and the RealD. Its visual technologies can be used in many different applications and businesses, including entertainment, consumer electronics, education, aerospace, defense and healthcare. Its 3D technologies are used in the motion picture industry. The Company purchases optical and mechanical components for its RealD Cinema Systems from multiple suppliers and manufacture its RealD Cinema Systems at its facility in Boulder, Colorado. The Company hires independent contractors to perform installation, repair and maintenance services related to its RealD Cinema Systems. The competitors for its RealD Cinema Systems include Dolby Laboratories, Inc., or Dolby, X6D Limited, or Xpand, MasterImage 3D, LLC, or MasterImage, Sony Electronics, or Sony, and IMAX Corporation, or IMAX.
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