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SpectraScience (SpectraScience) Predictability Rank


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What is SpectraScience Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SpectraScience Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

SpectraScience Predictability Rank Related Terms

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SpectraScience (SpectraScience) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » SpectraScience Inc (GREY:SCIE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GTHP ESMC ACAR EQUR IGNG ACXA MDGS NSPR MRLB VYCO PHMD NUMD PBIOD PYNGF CHFS MPHMF AVGR MICR NIMU AHPI
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
11568-11 Sorrento Valley Road, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
Website
http://www.spectrascience.com
SpectraScience Inc is a US based company focused on developing the WavSTAT Optical Biopsy System (WavSTAT). The WavSTAT employs a risk technology that optically illuminates tissue in real-time to distinguish between normal and pre-cancerous or cancerous tissue. The firm has developed a technology platform to determine if the tissue is normal, pre-cancerous or cancerous, without the need for a physical biopsy. The WavSTAT operates by using cool, safe UV laser light to optically illuminate and analyze tissue, enabling the physician to make a diagnosis during endoscopy when screening for cancer and, if warranted, to begin treatment during the same procedure. The group sells its product in the United States and Europe, of which majority of the sales revenue is derived from the United States.
Executives
Lowell Giffhorn officer: CFO 10875 KEMAH LANE, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
John Pappajohn director 1660 WALT WHITMAN ROAD, SUITE 105, MELVILLE NY 11747
Euclidsr Partners, L.p. 10 percent owner 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 3240, NEW YORK NY 10111
Euclidsr Associates, L.p. 10 percent owner 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 3240, NEW YORK NY 10111
Tommy G Thompson director 7711 CARONDELET, ST. LOUIS MO 63105

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