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Slam (SLAM) Predictability Rank


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What is Slam Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Slam Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Slam Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Slam's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Slam (SLAM) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Slam Corp (NAS:SLAM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CCVI TRTL NETD HCVI CXAC NFNT APGB KCGI CNDA EMLD PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
SLAMU:USA
Address
55 Hudson Yards, 47th Floor, Suite C, New York, NY, USA, 10001
Website
https://www.slamcorp.com
Slam Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Alexandre Zyngier director 5700 W. PLANO PARKWAY, SUITE 3600, PLANO TX 75093
Ann Berry director C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Glazer Capital, Llc 10 percent owner 250 WEST 55TH STREET, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Paul J Glazer 10 percent owner 250 WEST 55TH ST, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019
Barbara M Byrne director C/O CBS CORPORATION, 51 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jagdeep Singh director C/O INFINERA CORPORATION, 169 JAVA DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Kelly Laferriere officer: President C/O SIX FLAGS INC, 1540 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Desiree Gruber director C/O DPCM CAPITAL, INC., 382 NE 191 STREET, #24148, MIAMI FL 33179
Himanshu Gulati director, officer: Chairman 500 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2320, NEW YORK NY 10110
Slam Sponsor, Llc director, 10 percent owner 500 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10110
Chetan Bansal director, officer: Chief Development Officer C/O SLAM CORP., 500 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10110
Alexander Rodriguez director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O SLAM CORP., 500 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10110
Joseph Taeid officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O SLAM CORP., 500 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10110
Reginald Hudlin director C/O SLAM CORP., 500 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10110