SPI Energy Co (SPI Energy Co) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2017. Start your Free Trial

What is SPI Energy Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SPI Energy Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

SPI Energy Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of SPI Energy Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

SPI Energy Co (SPI Energy Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » SPI Energy Co Ltd (NAS:SPI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7XSP:Germany

Address

4803 Urbani Avenue, McClellan Park, Sacramento, CA, USA, 95652

Website

https://www.spigroups.com

SPI Energy Co Ltd offers photovoltaic solutions for business, residential, government, and utility customers and investors. The company provides a range of engineering, procurement, and construction services to third-party project developers. It is also engaged in the development, manufacture, and marketing of various PV modules. It procures PV modules and other equipment for project construction from independent suppliers and contract work to third-party EPC contractors in areas such as logistics, installation, construction, and supervision. The company's geographical segments are the United Kingdom, Australia, United States, Greece, Japan, and Italy, of which the majority of its revenue comes from Australia.

Executives

Dejun Ye	officer: Chief Executive Officer	ROOM 502, NO.16, LANE 28, EAST GUILIN ST, XUHUI DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 200235
Yunan Ren	director	C/O TIGER MEDIA, INC. ROOM 1705, 511 WEIHAI ROAD, JING AN DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 200041
Jing Liu	officer: Chief Financial Officer	RM 1708 YINGU PLZA NO.9 OF N 4TH, RING ROAD WEST HAIDIAN DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100080
Gang Dong	director	2512,COSCO TOWER, 183 QUEEN'S ROAD CENTRAL, SHEUNG WAN K3 852
Xiaofeng Pen	director	7TH FLOOR, BUILDING B, 2145 LONG, JINSHAJIANG ROAD, PUTUO DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 200333
Hoong Khoeng Cheong	officer: Chief Operating Officer	#04-152, BLOCK 532, BUKIT BATOK ST 5 1, SINGAPORE U0 650532
Lang Zhou	director	LDK SOLAR, SAIWEI ROAD, HIGH-TEC ZONE, XINYU F4 338000
Xiahou Min	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	LDK SOLAR,SAIWEI ROAD, HIGH-TECH ZONE, XINYU CITY F4 338000
Charlotte Xi Klein	officer: President, Global COO, CFO	201 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 1250, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
James Pekarsky	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1349A OLIVE STREET, SAN CARLO CA 94070
Dennis Wu	director	SOLAR POWER INC, 2240 DOUGLAS BLVD, SUITE 200, ROSEVILLE CA 95661
Ldk Solar Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	HIGH-TECH INDUSTRIAL PARK, XINYU CITY, JIANGXI PROVINCE F4 338032
Jack K Lai	director	C/O LDK SOLAR USA, INC., 1290 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUITE 306, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Peng Xiaofeng	director	#15, 35/F WEST TOWER, SHUN TAK CENTRE, 200 CONNAUGHT ROAD, CENTRAL K3 00000
Joseph Bedewi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	SOLAR POWER INC, 1115 ORLANDO AVE, ROSEVILLE CA 95661