Spring Valley Acquisition (Spring Valley Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is Spring Valley Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Spring Valley Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Spring Valley Acquisition (Spring Valley Acquisition) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Spring Valley Acquisition Corp (NAS:SV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2100 McKinney Avenue, Suite 1675, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201

Website

https://www.sv-ac.com

Spring Valley Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

Robert K Temple	officer: General Counsel	6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224
Rudy Murgo	officer: Treasurer	6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224
Ibk Securities Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	11 GUKJEGEUMYUNG-RO 6-GIL, YEONGDEUNGPO-GU, SEOUL M5 07330
Ds Asset Management Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	10, GUKJEGEUMYUNG-RO, YEONGDEUNGPO-GU, 14TH FLOOR, SEOUL M5 07326
Soo Jang Dok	10 percent owner	10, GUKJEGEUMYUNG-RO, YEONGDEUNGPO-GU, 14TH FLOOR, SEOUL M5 07326
Dae Seok Bae	10 percent owner	9F, 21, YEOUIDAEBANG-RO 67-GIL, YEONGDEUNGPO-GU, SEOUL M5 07333
Bh Investment & Liberty Ltd.	10 percent owner	9F, 21, YEOUIDAEBANG-RO 67-GIL, YEONGDEUNGPO-GU, SEOUL M5 07333
Ds Private Equity Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	10, GUKJEGEUMYUNG-RO, YEONGDEUNGPO-GU, 14TH FLOOR, SEOUL M5 07326
Green Energy New Technology Investment Fund	10 percent owner	22F, D TOWER 134, TONGIL-RO, JONGNO-GU, SEOUL M5
Samsung C&t Corp	10 percent owner	26, SANGIL-RO 6-GIL, GANGDONG-GU, SEOUL M5 05288
Alan L Boeckmann	director	C/O FLUOR CORP, ONE ENTERPRISE DR, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Thomas P Mundy	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	6550 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224
John Lawrence Hopkins	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224
Chris Colbert	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6650 SW REDWOOD LANE, SUITE 210, PORTLAND OR 97224
Kent Kresa	director	150 N. ORANGE GROVE BLVD, PASADENA CA 91103