Shockwave Medical (Shockwave Medical) Predictability Rank

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What is Shockwave Medical Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shockwave Medical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Shockwave Medical (Shockwave Medical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Shockwave Medical Inc (NAS:SWAV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

36M:Germany 36M:Germany

Address

5403 Betsy Ross Drive, Santa Clara, CA, USA, 95054

Website

https://www.shockwavemedical.com

ShockWave Medical Inc is a medical device company focused on developing and commercializing products intended to transform the way calcified cardiovascular disease is treated. Its intravascular lithotripsy technology is used in the treatment of calcified plaque. Geographically, the company generates its revenue from the United States, Europe and other countries.

Executives

Douglas Evan Godshall	director, officer: President & CEO	SUITE 4 LEVEL 46 2 PARK STREET, SIDNEY C3 2000
Frank T Watkins	director	5403 BETSY ROSS DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Isaac Zacharias	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	5403 BETSY ROSS DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Dan Puckett	officer: CFO & Secretary	5403 BETSY ROSS DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Trinh Phung	officer: VP, Finance	C/O SHOCKWAVE MEDICAL, INC., 5403 BETSY ROSS DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Laura Francis	director	C/O SI-BONE, INC., 471 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 101, SANTA CLARA CA 95050
Sara Toyloy	director	C/O SHOCKWAVE MEDICAL, INC., 5403 BETSY ROSS DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Kevin J. Ballinger	director	C/O BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Maria Sainz	director	C/O ORTHOFIX INTERNATIONAL N. V., 3451 PLANO PARKWAY, LEWISVILLE TX 75056
Antoine Papiernik	director, 10 percent owner	5403 BETSY ROSS DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Sofinnova Capital Vii Fcpr	10 percent owner	C/O SOFINNOVA PARTNERS, 18 RUE DU 4 SEPTEMBRE, 75002 PARIS I0 00000
Cahill Colin	director	5403 BETSY ROSS DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Frederic H Moll	director	C/O INTUITIVE SURGICAL INC, 950 KIFER ROAD, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
James E Flynn	10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group	780 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Larkin C Raymond Jr	director	C/O MALLINCKRODT INC, 7733 FORSYTH BLVD, ST LOUIS MO 63105