Talaris Therapeutics (Talaris Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Talaris Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Talaris Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Talaris Therapeutics (Talaris Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Talaris Therapeutics Inc (NAS:TALS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

93 Worcester Street, Wellesley, MA, USA, 02481

Website

https://www.talaristx.com

Talaris Therapeutics Inc is a late-clinical stage biotechnology company. It is developing transformative cell therapies with the potential to eliminate the burden of chronic immunosuppression for organ transplant recipients as well as induce durable remissions in patients with severe autoimmune and immune-mediated disorders.

Executives

Cariad Chester	director	C/O TOURMALINE BIO, INC., 27 WEST 24TH STREET, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10010
Yung H. Chyung	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O SCHOLAR ROCK, 620 MEMORIAL DR., 2ND FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Caley Castelein	director	THOM. WEISEL HEALTHCARE VENTURES, ONE MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
W Bradford Middlekauff	officer: CBO, GC and Secretary	200 CONNELL DRIVE, SUITE 1600, BERKELEY HEIGHTS NJ 07922
Aaron Kantoff	director	C/O CENTESSA PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, D. HODGKIN BLDG, BABRAHAM RSRCH CAMPUS, CAMBRIDGE X0 CB22 3FH
Sandeep Chidambar Kulkarni	director, officer: CEO	92 MORNINGSIDE AVE., APT 7E, NEW YORK NM 10027
Kevin Bruce Johnson	officer: Chief Regulatory Officer	C/O TOURMALINE BIO, INC., 27 WEST 24TH STREET, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10010
Ryan F. Robinson	officer: Interim CFO	C/O TOURMALINE BIO, INC., 27 WEST 24TH STREET, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10010
Parvinder Thiara	director	C/O TOURMALINE BIO, INC., 27 WEST 24TH STREET, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10010
Susan Dana Jones	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O TOURMALINE BIO, INC., 27 WEST 24TH STREET, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10010
Suzanne Ildstad	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O TALARIS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 93 WORCESTER STREET, SUITE 120, WELLESLEY MA 02481
Scott Requadt	director, officer: See Remarks	101 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1210, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Francois Nader	director	550 HILLS DRIVE, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Karen L. Smith	director	C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS PLC, 5TH FL, WATERLOO EXCHANGE, WATERLOO RD, DUBLIN L2 4 L2
Longitude Capital Partners Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	800 EL CAMINO, SUITE 220, MENLO PARK CA 94025