Talend (Talend) Predictability Rank

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What is Talend Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Talend Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Talend (Talend) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Talend SA (NAS:TLND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

800 Bridge Parkway, Suite 200, Redwood City, CA, USA, 94065

Website

https://www.talend.com

Talend SA is engaged in providing open source software. Its software platform, Data Fabric, integrates data and applications in real time across modern big data and cloud environments as well as traditional systems. The company provides various products and solutions such as cloud data lakes, google cloud platform, cloud for a snowflake, AWS Cloud, data integration, API and application integration, and others. It provides a solution to industries; ecosystems; technologies and business initiatives. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the Americas and also has a presence in EMEA and the Asia Pacific.

Executives

Adam Meister	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TALEND INC 800 BRIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 200 REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Krishna Tammana	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O TALEND, INC. 800 BRIDGE PARKWAY REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Jamie Kiser	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O TALEND, INC. 800 BRIDGE PARKWAY REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Laurent Bride	officer: COO & CTO	C/O TALEND INC 800 BRIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 200 REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Christal Bemont	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TALEND, INC. 800 BRIDGE PARKWAY REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Nora Denzel	director	C/O OVERLAND STORAGE, INC., 4820 OVERLAND AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Sudhir Steven Singh	director	6222 185TH AVE, REDMOND WA 98052
Patrick S Jones	director	5555 NE MOORE CT, HILLSBORO OR 97124
Elizabeth A Fetter	director	1400 MARINA WAY SOUTH, RICHMOND CA 94804
Brian Lillie	director	1485 BROOKMILL ROAD, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Mark Thomas Nelson	director	C/O TABLEAU SOFTWARE, INC. 1621 N 34TH ST SEATTLE WA 98103
Michael Tuchen	director	C/O TALEND INC 800 BRIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 200 REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Ann Christel Graham	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O TALEND INC 800 BRIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 200 REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
John Brennan	director	C/O BLACKLINE, INC., 21300 VICTORY BLVD., 12TH FLOOR, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Nanci Caldwell	director	C/O DELTEK, INC., 2291 WOOD OAK DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20171