Turning Point Therapeutics (Turning Point Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Turning Point Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Turning Point Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Turning Point Therapeutics (Turning Point Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Turning Point Therapeutics Inc (NAS:TPTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10628 Science Center Drive, Suite 200, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://www.tptherapeutics.com

Turning Point Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company involved in designing and developing molecule, targeted oncology therapies to address limitations of existing therapies. It owns a pipeline of next-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) that targets genetic drivers of cancer in both TKI-naive and TKI-pretreated patients. The company's lead drug candidate, repotrectinib, is being evaluated in an ongoing Phase 1/2 trial called TRIDENT-1 for the treatment of patients with ROS1+ advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and patients with ROS1+, NTRK+ or ALK+ advanced solid tumors.

Executives

Paolo Tombesi	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	10 FINDERNE AVENUE, BUILDING 10, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Steve M Sabus	officer: SVP & Chief Commercial Officer	10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Brian Sun	officer: SVP & General Counsel	C/O TURNING POINT THERAPEUTICS, INC. 10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200 SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Mohammad Hirmand	officer: EVP and Chief Medical Officer	C/O MEDIVATION, INC., 525 MARKET ST., 36TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Athena Countouriotis	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O AMBIT BIOSCIENCES CORPORATION, 11080 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Siegfried Reich	officer: EVP & Chief Scientific Officer	10505 ROSELLE STREET SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Andrew John Partridge	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer	C/O CENTREXION THERAPEUTICS CORPORATION 200 STATE STREET BOSTON MA 02109
Annette North	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Secty.	C/O SGX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10505 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Mark J Alles	director	C/O CELGENE CORPORATION, 86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Van Hoose Kyri K.	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O TURNING POINT THERAPEUTICS, INC., 10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Barbara W. Bodem	director	C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Brian Lee Baker	officer: VP of Finance and Admin.	C/O TURNING POINT THERAPEUTICS, INC. 10628 SCIENCE CENTER DR., STE. 225 SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Yi Larson	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O RAYZEBIO, INC., 5505 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jingrong Jean Cui	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O TURNING POINT THERAPEUTICS, INC. 10628 SCIENCE CENTER DR., STE. 225 SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Simeon George	director	161 WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 500, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428