Tishman Speyer Innovation II (Tishman Speyer Innovation II) Predictability Rank

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What is Tishman Speyer Innovation II Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tishman Speyer Innovation II Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tishman Speyer Innovation II (Tishman Speyer Innovation II) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Tishman Speyer Innovation Corp II (NAS:TSIB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

45 Rockefeller Plaza, 7th Floor, Rockefeller Center, New York, NY, USA, 10111

Website

https://www.tsibcorp.com

Tishman Speyer Innovation Corp II is a blank check company.

Executives

Ned D. Segal	director	1 MARKET PLAZA, STEUART TOWER, SUITE 800, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Joshua A Kazam	director	689 5TH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Michelangelo Volpi	director	C/O HORTONWORKS, INC., 3640 W. BAYSHORE RD., PALO ALTO CA 94303
Tishman Speyer Properties L P	10 percent owner	ROCKEFELLER CENTER, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10111
Robert J. Speyer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TISHMAN SPEYER, ROCKEFELLER CENTER, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10111
Paul A. Galiano	director, officer: COO, CFO and Director	C/O TISHMAN SPEYER PROPERTIES, L.P., ROCKEFELLER CENTER, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10111
Jennifer Wong Sharp	director, officer: CIO and Director	C/O TISHMAN SPEYER PROPERTIES, L.P., ROCKEFELLER CENTER, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10111
Jennifer Rubio	director	C/O TISHMAN SPEYER PROPERTIES, L.P., ROCKEFELLER CENTER, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10111
Tishman Speyer Properties, Inc.	10 percent owner	C/O TISHMAN SPEYER PROPERTIES, L.P., ROCKEFELLER CENTER, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10111
Jerry I. Speyer	10 percent owner	C/O TISHMAN SPEYER PROPERTIES, L.P., ROCKEFELLER CENTER, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10111
Tishman Speyer Innovation Sponsor Ii, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O TISHMAN SPEYER, ROCKEFELLER CENTER, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10111

Tishman Speyer Innovation II (Tishman Speyer Innovation II) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Tishman Speyer Innovation Corp. II Closes $300 Million Initial Public Offering

By PRNewswire PRNewswire • 02-18-2021