Tailwind Acquisition (Tailwind Acquisition) Predictability Rank

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What is Tailwind Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tailwind Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tailwind Acquisition (Tailwind Acquisition) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Tailwind Acquisition Corp (AMEX:TWND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1545 Courtney Avenue, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90046

Website

https://www.tailwindacquisition.com

Tailwind Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.

Executives

Polar Asset Management Partners Inc.	10 percent owner	16 YORK STREET SUITE 2900, TORONTO A6 M5J 0E6
Ventures International Capital	10 percent owner	WINDWARD 1, REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WEST BAY ROAD, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1103
G1 Execution Services, Llc	10 percent owner	175 W. JACKSON BLVD., SUITE 1700, 501 PLAZA 2, CHICAGO IL 60604
Susquehanna Securities, Llc	10 percent owner	401 CITY AVENUE, SUITE 220, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004
Boris Revsin	director	150 GREENWICH STREET, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Tailwind Acquisition Corp.	10 percent owner	7442 S TUSCON WAY, SUITE 130, CENTENNIAL CO 80112
Matthew Eby	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	TENGRAM CAPITAL PARTNERS, 15 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, WESTPORT CT 06880
Neha Parikh	director	1930 W. RIO SALADO PARKWAY, TEMPE AZ 85281
Philip Krim	director	C/O CASPER SLEEP INC., 175 GREENWICH ST., THREE WORLD TRADE CENTER, FLOOR 39, NEW YORK NY 10007
Tailwind Sponsor Llc	10 percent owner	1545 COURTNEY AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90046
Christopher John Hollod	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TAILWIND ACQUISITION, 1545 COURTNEY AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90046
Wisdom Lu	director	C/O TAILWIND ACQUISITION, 1545 COURTNEY AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90046
Alan Sheriff	director	C/O TAILWIND ACQUISITION, 1545 COURTNEY AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90046
Will Quist	director	C/O TAILWIND ACQUISITION, 1545 COURTNEY AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90046