What is Gaucho Group Holdings Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Gaucho Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Gaucho Group Holdings (Gaucho Group Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
41st Street, 112 NE, Suite 106, Miami Beach, FL, USA, 33137
Gaucho Group Holdings Inc develops and operates real estate projects in Argentina. It operates a hotel, golf and tennis resort, vineyard and producing winery in addition to developing residential lots located near the resort. The company operates in three segments which are the business of real estate development and manufacture; the sale of high-end fashion and accessories through an e-commerce platform; corporate operations. It derives majority of its revenue from the Real Estate Development segment.
Executives
| Hollywood Burger Holdings, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
112 NE 41ST STREET, SUITE 106, MIAMI FL 33137 |
| Allen A William Iii |
director |
1300 DOVE STREET, SUITE 105, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660 |
| Edie Rodriguez |
director |
1764 VICTORIA POINTE CIRCLE, WESTON FL 33327 |
| Reuben Cannon |
director |
135 FIFTH AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Marc Dumont |
director |
2391 QUME DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131 |
| Steven A. Moel |
director, other: Director of Gaucho Group, Inc. |
7934 LA MIRADA DRIVE, BOCA RATON FL 33433 |
| Scott L Mathis |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks |
135 5TH AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Keith T Fasano |
other: See Remarks |
135 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 10, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Maria I. Echevarria |
officer: CFO |
135 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 10, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Lawrence Peter J.l. |
director |
FLAT 6, STAVORDALE LODGE, 10-12 MELBURY ROAD, LONDON X0 W14 8LW |
| Julian Beale |
director |
14 MARTIN COURT, UNIT #5, TOORAK, VICTORIA C3 3142 |
| Wow Group, Llc |
10 percent owner |
135 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 10, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
| Mark G. Downey |
officer: CFO & COO |
135 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 10, NEW YORK NY 10010 |
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