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Cheil Industries (XKRX:001300) Predictability Rank


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What is Cheil Industries Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cheil Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cheil Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cheil Industries (XKRX:001300) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Cheil Industries Inc (XKRX:001300) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHSE:600160 SAU:2002 XBRU:SOLV SZSE:300699 SAU:2330 SAU:2060 TSX:MX HKSE:00148 WBO:LNZ SAU:2250 XKRX:009830 TSE:4114 SZSE:000408 MIC:KZOS TSE:4185 SHSE:603077 TSE:4061 SZSE:002080 ALPEKA SHSE:603379
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.samsungcnt.com
Samsung C&T Corp was founded in 1938. The Company was formed from the merger of Samsung C&T Corporation ('Samsung C&T') and Cheil Industries Inc. The Company operates four business including engineering & construction, trading & investment, fashion and resort & construction. In the engineering & construction business it provides services including planning, design, purchasing, construction and management of buildings, civil infrastructure, power plants and housing & developments. The Company's trading & investment business includes trading of industrial commodities such as chemicals, steel and natural resources, and organizing projects such as power plant, renewable energy and infrastructure development. The Company also trades chemicals and industrial materials including fertilizer, mining chemicals, methanol and electronic materials, steel products including hot rolled steel, plate and automotive steel, and natural resources including coal and copper. It also operates palm plantation. The Company's fashion business is engaged in manufacturing and designing fashion products and offers brands including 8 Seconds, 10 Corso Como Seoul, Aann Demeulemeester, Beanpole Men, Beanpole Ladies, Beanpole Kids, Beanpole Golf, Beanpole Accessory, Beanpole Outdoor, Balmain, Beaker, Colombo, Comme Des Garcons, Galaxy, Giuseppe Zanotti, Kuho, Lansmere, Lebeige and Valextra. The Company's resort business is engaged in operating Everland & Caribbean Bay resorts and Golf Clubs; and also engaged in construction, plant, and landscaping businesses.

Cheil Industries (XKRX:001300) Headlines

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