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Cia Logistica de Hidrocarburos CLH (XMAD:CLH.T) Predictability Rank


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What is Cia Logistica de Hidrocarburos CLH Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cia Logistica de Hidrocarburos CLH Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Cia Logistica de Hidrocarburos CLH Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cia Logistica de Hidrocarburos CLH's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Cia Logistica de Hidrocarburos CLH (XMAD:CLH.T) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Cia Logistica de Hidrocarburos CLH SA (XMAD:CLH.T) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
NS PAGP TCP STU:B5P VNOM TSX:GEI ETRN ENLC AM HEP XBRU:EURN GEL CEQP RTLR ENBL XBRU:FLUX FRO TSX:ALA SHSE:601975 STNG
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.clh.es
Cia Logistica de Hidrocarburos CLH SA was formed on October 24, 1927. The Company is engaged in the storage, transportation and distribution of oil products in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands, on behalf of the oil companies that operate in the Spanish market. This activity basically consists of receiving oil products at its facilities - mainly gasolines, diesels, fuel oils, aviation fuels and biofuels - and transporting and storing these products, and final delivery to the company's customers through its tank truck loading facilities. Its segment consists of: the land supplies business segment consists of logistics services comprising storage, transportation and distribution of all kinds of hydrocarbons and chemicals, and their derivatives and waste products, as well as advice and technical assistance in the provision of the services. The air supplies business segment consists of logistics services involving the storage, distribution and serving at airports of all kinds of aircraft fuels and lubricants.

Cia Logistica de Hidrocarburos CLH (XMAD:CLH.T) Headlines

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