Xerium Technologies (Xerium Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Xerium Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xerium Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Xerium Technologies (Xerium Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Xerium Technologies Inc (NYSE:XRM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.xerium.com

Xerium Technologies Inc is a manufacturer and supplier of specially engineered consumable products used primarily in the production of paper, paperboard, and specific industrial applications. The company operates in two business segment that are Machine Clothing and Roll Covers. Roughly 80% of revenues are split evenly between North America and Europe.

Executives

Mitchell I Quain	director	53 FOREST AVENUE, SUITE 101, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870
John F Mcgovern	director	3231 SE SIXTH AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66607
Carl Marks Management Co L P /ny/	other: Former 10% owner	900 THIRD AVENUE, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022-4775
April Hoxie Foley	director	7480 FLYING CLOUD DRIVE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55344-3720
James Forbes Wilson	director	C/O CARL MARKS MANAGEMENT COMPANY, L.P., 900 THIRD AVENUE - 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Alexander Toeldte	director	1111 WEST JEFFERSON STREET, P O BOX 50, BOISE ID 83728
American Securities Associates V, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O AMERICAN SECURITIES LLC, THE CHRYSLER CENTER, 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
American Securities Llc	10 percent owner	590 MADISON AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
American Securities Partners V (c) L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O AMERICAN SECURITIES LLC, THE CHRYSLER CENTER, 666 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
American Securities Partners V, L.p.	10 percent owner	666 Third Avenue, 29th Floor, New York NY 10017
American Securities Partners V(b), L.p.	10 percent owner	666 Third Avenue, 29th Floor, New York NY 10017
Harold C Bevis	director, officer: President & CEO	8537 SIX FORKS RD., SUITE 300, RALEIGH NC 27615
Tocqueville Asset Management L.p.	10 percent owner	40 WEST 57TH STREET, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Bloss David A Sr	director	N49 W13650 CAMBELL DRIVE, MENOMONEE FALLS WI 53051
Apax Europe Iv Gp Co Ltd	10 percent owner	15 PORTLAND PLACE, LONDON UK X0 W1B 1PT