What is Zayo Group Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Zayo Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Zayo Group Holdings (Zayo Group Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1821 30th Street, Unit A, Boulder, CO, USA, 80301
Zayo owns about 130,000 route miles of fiber, which underlies most of its business and is in over 400 markets throughout the U.S., Canada, and Europe. In its biggest segment, Fiber Solutions, Zayo leases dark fiber on long-term contracts primarily to communications service providers. In its Transport and Enterprise Networks segments, Zayo similarly leases fiber to customers to transport data, but it has a range of offerings over fiber that Zayo has lit, saving customers from having to activate and customize it themselves. Zayo also operates 50 U.S. data centers, provides cloud services, and owns a small Canadian telecom company, Allstream, that serves business customers. In 2018, Zayo announced its intention to split its business into two companies by the end of 2019.
Executives
| Scott William Drake |
director |
9965 FEDERAL DRIVE, COLORADO SPRINGS CO 80921 |
| Emily White |
director |
C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC., 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE, VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7 |
| Yancey L. Spruill |
director |
1601 DRY CREEK DRIVE, SUITE 260, LONGMONT CO 80503 |
| Steven N Kaplan |
director |
1101 EAST 58TH STREET, CHICAGO IL 60637 |
| Mary Catherine Morris |
director |
ARROW ELECTRONICS, INC., 9201 EAST DRY CREEK ROAD, CENTENNIAL CO 80112 |
| Richard W. Connor |
director |
1625 17TH STREET, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Nina Richardson |
director |
C/O SILICON LABORATORIES, 400 W CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701 |
| Charlesbank Capital Partners Llc |
10 percent owner |
600 ATLANTIC AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02210 |
| Oak Investment Partners Xii L P |
10 percent owner |
901 MAIN AVENUE, SUITE 600, NORWALK CT 06851 |
| Michael W. Choe |
director |
C/O CHARLESBANK CAPITAL PARTNERS, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109 |
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