Abeona Therapeutics (Abeona Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Abeona Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Abeona Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Abeona Therapeutics (Abeona Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Abeona Therapeutics Inc (NAS:ABEO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PCJ:Germany PCJ:Germany

Address

1330 Avenue of the Americas, 33rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.abeonatherapeutics.com

Abeona Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The firm is focused on developing gene therapies and plasma-based products for life-threatening rare genetic diseases. Its lead clinical programs consist of EB-101, autologous, gene-corrected cell therapy for recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa; ABO-102, adeno-associated virus-based gene therapy for Sanfilippo syndrome type A, and ABO-101, an AAV-based gene therapy for Sanfilippo syndrome type B.

Executives

Mark Alvino	director	C/O SCO SECURITIES LLC, 1285 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Amoroso	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Faith L. Charles	director	ABEONA THERAPEUTICS INC., 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS - FLOOR 33, NEW YORK NY 10019
Vishwas Seshadri	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	64 STRYKER COURT, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Leila Alland	director	C/O PMV PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 8 CLARKE DRIVE, SUITE 3, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Christine Berni Silverstein	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ABEONA THERAPEUTICS INC., 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Joseph Walter Vazzano	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Brendan M. O'malley	officer: SVP, General Counsel	1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Adage Capital Partners, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Adage Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Adage Capital Partners Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Robert Atchinson	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Phillip Gross	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Edward Carr	officer: Vice President, Controller	1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Todd Wider	director	4848 LEMMON AVENUE, SUITE 517, DALLAS TX 75219