Arbor Realty Trust (Arbor Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Arbor Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arbor Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Arbor Realty Trust (Arbor Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Arbor Realty Trust Inc (NYSE:ABR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

BXMT ARI RC LADR TWO PMT CMTG MFA FBRT CIM NLY AGNC STWD RITM EFC ARR BRSP DX RWT KREF

Traded in Other Exchanges

ABRpF.PFD:USA OWQ:Germany OWQ:Germany

Address

333 Earle Ovington Boulevard, Suite 900, Uniondale, NY, USA, 11553

Website

https://www.arbor.com

Arbor Realty Trust Inc is a specialized real estate finance company. It invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets in the multifamily and commercial real estate markets, primarily consisting of bridge and mezzanine loans, including junior participating interests in first mortgages, preferred and direct equity. In addition, it may also directly acquire real property and invest in real estate-related notes and certain mortgage-related securities. The company has two business segments, Structured Business and Agency Business. It generates a majority of its revenue from the Structured Business Segment. The company is externally managed and advised by Arbor Commercial Mortgage, LLC.

Executives

Ivan Kaufman	director, 10 percent owner, officer: COB, CEO and President
Paul Elenio	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST, 333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
William C Green	director	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST, 333 EARLE OVINGTON BLVD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
Carrie Wilkens	director	333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
Gianni Ottaviano	officer: Exec VP, Struc Fin Prod	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC., 333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
Maysa Vahidi	officer: EVP General Counsel	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC., 333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
Melvin F Lazar	director	300 EAST 56TH STREET, APT. 18A, NEW YORK NY 10022
Caryn Effron	director	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC., 333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
Malvina Iannone	officer: EVP General Counsel	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST, INC., 333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
Kenneth J Bacon	director	5404 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 410, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Van Der Reis Dennis	officer: EVP, Structured Asset Mgmt	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC., 333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
William P Connolly	officer: Executive V P, Special Counsel	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC., 333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
Steve Katz	officer: Chief Investment Officer & EVP	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC., 333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
Leiner Howard	officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer	C/O ARBOR REALTY TRUST INC., 333 EARLE OVINGTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 900, UNIONDALE NY 11553
Edward J Farrell	director	C/O CIPHER MINING INC., 1 VANDERBILT AVENUE, FLOOR 54, SUITE C, NEW YORK NY 10017